Apple Stock: Potential iPhone Sales Worry (NASDAQ:AAPL)

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September is at all times an vital month for the market’s strongest title. In most years, expertise big Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has an enormous occasion to launch the 12 months’s new set of iPhones, and maybe another services. Final week, there was an fascinating report launched concerning the timing of this 12 months’s large day, making me marvel if there’s a little bit of a gross sales downside for the corporate proper now.

Mark Gurman, who covers Apple extensively for Bloomberg, reported final week that Apple is taking a look at September seventh for this 12 months’s main product unveiling. The corporate is predicted to unveil 4 new iPhones this 12 months, together with three new variations of its smartwatch, with maybe an opportunity for another units as nicely. Apple has not but confirmed a date for the occasion.

The September seventh date strikes me as a really curious one. First, Apple often tries to keep away from vacation weeks, so holding the occasion simply after Labor Day does not jive with the same old sample. It is also an enormous again to highschool week in sure areas of the nation, and the primary week of NFL video games, so media protection may not be as centered on Apple as regular. This could even be a bit sooner than final 12 months’s launch, which has some fascinating monetary implications. As a reminder, this is what occurred final 12 months:

  • Launch occasion on September 14th.
  • Pre-orders started on September seventeenth.
  • Telephones formally launched on September twenty fourth.
  • Fiscal This autumn ended on September twenty fifth.

For the second, let’s assume that the September seventh occasion date is right for this 12 months’s launch. That may seemingly imply that pre-orders for at the least some (or all) of the 4 smartphones might begin on the ninth, with the telephones formally changing into accessible on the sixteenth. If that is really the case, it will give Apple an additional week this 12 months to promote the iPhone in its fiscal This autumn quarter, which is slated to finish on September twenty fourth.

This 12 months’s iPhone line is predicted to differ from earlier years, which makes me marvel how sturdy gross sales will really be. First, the cheaper SE mannequin obtained a brand new model earlier this 12 months, permitting customers a extra inexpensive choice on this excessive inflation atmosphere. On the similar time, the non-Professional fashions are anticipated to not see the same old annual chipset improve, that means they might have final 12 months’s A15 chip or a modified model. Thus, these telephones wouldn’t get the conventional efficiency improve that the Professional fashions are anticipated to see with the A16 chipset. Apple can be more likely to kill the iPhone mini line in favor of a bigger, 6.7 inch display, non-Professional mannequin. There are additionally options that pricing might obtain an enormous increase, which is nice for the common promoting worth metric, however a headwind for the variety of telephones offered.

If there’s a fear about iPhone gross sales this 12 months, or maybe Apple’s complete gross sales within the quarter, an sooner than ordinary launch would definitely assist out the corporate. You’d have an additional week of latest iPhone gross sales (and doubtlessly different merchandise) over the prior 12 months interval. That could possibly be vital, as the road is presently anticipating greater than 6.3% income progress for fiscal This autumn because the graphic beneath reveals. Do not forget, the stronger US greenback is offering a further headwind for the corporate to beat over prior 12 months durations.

Apple Revenue Estimates

Apple Income Estimates (Looking for Alpha)

A fear about iPhone gross sales within the September interval is also logical if you concentrate on these decrease progress expectations for the December fiscal Q1 interval. Apple does not have as excessive an estimate bar, so pulling even a billion or two of gross sales ahead into the September interval would not be as a lot of a difficulty. Additionally, as I’ve continued to level out, this 12 months’s vacation interval is more likely to be 14 weeks as a substitute of the same old 13 weeks due to how the calendar falls. Thus, Apple is already getting a bit of little bit of progress assist for fiscal Q1 as it should have some additional gross sales time within the interval. If you mix decrease expectations for December plus the additional gross sales time, pulling ahead the iPhone launch begins to make extra sense within the grand scheme of issues.

I point out Apple attempting to fulfill excessive expectations due to what has occurred with its shares lately. Because the chart beneath reveals, the inventory has gone mainly straight up for the final two months, till pulling again a bit of on the finish of final week. That is essentially the most the inventory has been above its 50-day transferring common (purple line) shortly, which might imply a pullback is on the horizon. The inventory additionally final week was the closest it has been to its common worth goal since early 2022, with Friday’s end representing lower than $10 of upside to the common road valuation.

AAPL 1-Year Chart

Apple Final 12 Months (Yahoo! Finance)

In the long run, final week’s report about Apple’s iPhone occasion launch timing could appear relatively curious. The corporate seems to be transferring issues up every week this 12 months, surprisingly holding its main showcase throughout a vacation week. Maybe this can be a signal that administration is nervous a bit of about income era, as this early occasion would enable for additional gadget gross sales within the fiscal This autumn interval the place expectations are for extra progress than the December interval. Apple can afford to drag ahead some gross sales this 12 months, given the fiscal Q1 interval is slated to be 14 weeks. With the inventory close to its all-time highs, traders predict large issues, so it will likely be fascinating to see if Apple can ship this 12 months because the iPhone may be a bit costlier and non-Professional variations might not get the same old chipset increase.

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